ON MY ALLEGED MIND (12-27-21)
BOILERS VOL FANS SHOULD WATCH FOR:
QB Aidan O’Connell is the Big-10’s most accurate passer completing 73.5 % of his throws (289-393), while averaging 26.3 completions/game. Despite splitting time at points of the season, O’Connell has thrown for 3,177 yds (17th nationally) and 23 TDs (25th nationally)
RB King Doerue gets the majority of Purdue’s carries with 125 on the season but averages only 3.9 ypc and 44.4 ypg rushing. He has 2 rushing TDs on the season.
With David Bell opting out Purdue’s primary pass catcher will likely be WR Milton Wright who has 57 catches for 732 yds and a team-high 7 TDs
WR Jackson Anthrop will be another high-volume target with 48 catches for 496 yds and 5 TDs
Purdue -like most of their conference brethren- utilize the TE effectively. Payne Durham has 40 catches for 382 yds and 4 TDs
DE Kydran Jenkins will look to make up for George Karlaftis opting out (5 sacks, 11.5 tfl). Jenkins has recorded 5 sacks with 8 tfl
DT Branson Deen provides a push in the middle of the Boiler’s D-line with 4 sacks and 9.5 tfl
LB Jaylan Alexander leads the Boilermakers in tackles with 95 including 7.5 tfl.
LB Jalen Graham has 52 tackles, 4 tfl and 1 sack
CB Dedrick Mackey has 37 tackles and 3 interceptions
The Boilers have a pair of solid safeties in Cam Allen (56 tack; 4 Ints) and Marvin Grant (67 tack; 2.5 tfl)
WHAT VOLS MUST DO THURSDAY:
KEEP PURDUE ONE-DIMENSIONAL: The Boilermaker attack makes Mike Leach look like Barry Switzer. Purdue has run the ball 359 times 62 of which were QB carries. They have thrown it 528 times or 60% of the time. That’s not terribly unbalanced but they definitely depend on advancing the ball through the air since they are averaging a paltry 2.8 ypc on the ground. The Vols must make sure through solid gap integrity and disciplined alignment that the Boilers remain largely dependent on passing the football. Sure tackling will be essential as well not allowing short passes to become major gains after the catch.
BE STINGY IN CLOSE: In a classic weakness versus weakness matchup Purdue struggles to score TDs at a high rate from inside the Red Zone while the Vols defense has laid out the welcome mat adnauseam for opposing offenses inside the 20 all season long. The Boilers score red zone TDs only 49% of the time good for 12th in the Big-10 while Tennessee surrenders point-blank scores at a horrid 77% which is of course last in the SEC and likely would be in any community Pee-Wee League. Hopefully the Vols find a way to reverse a season trend in Nashville Thursday.
RUN THE DAMN BALL: For the Vols to have success versus Purdue running the ball effectively will likely be imperative. The Boilers defense is much better versus the pass than the run. Purdue surrenders only 194 yards through the air per game (3rd in the B-10) while teams run from 146 per contest versus against the Boiler defense good for only 8th in the conference. 13 of Purdue’s 16 takeaways on the season have come from interceptions -with two 4 pick games on the season- proving they’re ball hawks when it’s in the air.
VALUE THE BALL: As just mentioned the Boiler secondary is opportunistic but Purdue has only three fumble recoveries on the season. They have 16 turnovers placing their season turnover margin at zero. The Vols are +1 with 13 takeaways and 12 turnovers. The game could easily be determined by one team or the other being uncharacteristically careless with the ball. If that occurs lets assure it’s them and not us.
WHAT I WANT TO SEE:
THE GAME ACTUALLY PLAYED: Covid has reared its ugly head once again cancelling three bowl games to-date with more almost sure to follow. The highly contagious nature of the Omicron variant combined with restrictions designed to protect from Covid’s more serious early forms has everyone involved on pins and needles. Hopefully both teams will have enough healthy players to play the game without relying on anyone to log more plays than they’re physically capable of.
SUSTAINED HUNGER: Josh Heupel’s teams have been focused and energized from jump. They have sometimes been outmanned but never out-desired. The Vols have at least met even the most demanding Vol fan’s expectations and exceeded the vast majority. After a month away here’s hoping they still want one more win to usher in Year 2 of the new regime.
HOOKER TO TILLMAN: Hendon Hooker and Cedric Tillman both thrilled Vol fans with their decision to return for another year in orange. The duo hooked up for 57 receptions for 931 yds (16.33 ypr) and 9 TDs. Had you told me Tennessee would win 7 regular season football games coming off the most tumultuous off-season in program history I would have been surprised. Telling me that the two biggest factors in the success would be a QB that seemingly showed up out of nowhere and an afterthought upperclassman receiver would have elicited a pejorative
pffffffft! They’ve both been fabulous. Here’s to kicking off 2022 in fashion with another big day for both in Nashville.
ANOTHER BIG-10 PATSY: Though Purdue doesn’t fit the usual plodding, slow it down, beat you with defense, middle-of-the-pack Big-10 foe they’re still a member of the conference I love to hate. The Vols have won their last four bowl games all against Big-10 opponents with only the 23-22 victory versus Indiana January 2nd 2020 being by less than two TDs. Though I can’t work up the usual Big-Whatever hatred I usually hold for Purdue giving them a good thrashing will still be good for the soul.
HOOPS STUFF
TURNED INSIDE-OUT: The Vols offensive approach in a victory over #4 Arizona -that will likely have March implications- was a stark departure from what we had seen in prior contests. The Vols played much more inside-out featuring a reenergized John Fulkerson who responded with one of his best performances in a Tennessee uniform with 24 points, 10 rebounds and fouling out seemingly the entire Wildcats front line. I like it and think it should be used more often. I’m not suggesting with a sharpshooting lineup including Kennedy Chandler, Santiago Vescovi and Justin Powell that the Vols should abandon their perimeter-shooting ways and exclusively feature Fulky or that he will frequently put up Arizona-like numbers. I do believe an inside-out approach should be utilized far more regularly than in Tennessee’s first 11 games. It would provide more clear looks from beyond the arc and more importantly put the Vols at the free throw line more while possibly placing opponents key players on the bench for stretches with foul trouble. The Vols need something to fall back on when their long-range attack short-circuits as it has on a couple of occasions already. The Arizona win proves they do have other options.
HOUSE OF HORRORS: The Vols will open SEC play Wednesday against Alabama at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa. The venerable old-school arena has not been kind to the Vols throughout its existence. Tennessee has dropped 8 of it’s 12 games played there since 2000 and I was surprised to find they’ve won that many. Kicking off league play with a win there would be an excellent start to our conference slate. Forgive me if I believe it when I see it.
NEXT TIME: Music City Bowl wrap and more Vol hoops
CLOSING COMMENT: I hope you and your family have a healthy and blessed 2022.
