FLORIDA GAME CONCERNS AND COMFORTS

I’m as comfortable as I’ve been in years that the Vols can come away victorious over the Florida Gators on Saturday and that makes me rather uncomfortable. Does that make sense? I’m sure it does to every Vol fan as all of us -regardless of when our introduction to Tennessee Football came- have suffered miserably at the hands of the Gators. In order to appease the football Gods -and in the spirit of the “rivalry”- I will take a more cautious approach in the blogosphere and admit that amid the blusterous noise of my confidence there are still concerns.

CONCERNS

1-GATORS CAN RUN THE BALL AND WE HAVEN’T: Florida ranks 32nd in America in rushing offense at 212 ypg and have three capable RBs in Montrell Johnson Jr (25-240; 9.6 ypc; 2 TDs); Trevor Ettienne (22-166; 7.5 ypc; 2 TDs) and Nay’Quan Wright (24-103; 4.2ypc; 1 TD). They also have QB Anthony Richardson (24-134; 5.6ypc; 3 TDs) who if cut loose can give the Vols all kinds of problems in the open field. The Vols are 56th in the Nation rushing at 182 ypg but have done it against less resistance.

2-THE GAME CHANGER ANTHONY RICHARDSON SHOWS UP: Richardson hasn’t looked -and may not be- the same dynamic QB that torched Utah with his legs. But we know he’s as capable of winning a game for his team as he is losing it.

3-TILLMAN’S ABSENCE HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON HENDON HOOKER: Cedric has been Hendon’s security blanket since Hooker took over starting duties last season. The Vol receiving corps is solid but Hooker needs to believe in someone else with a possession, scoring threat or the game on the line.

4-MORE GAME PRESSURE ON THE VOLS THAN THE GATORS: More Vol fans than ever before believe this is the year Tennessee puts an end to the Gators stranglehold. They are a prohibitive favorite in a game they rarely win. Sometimes role reversals are hard to handle.

5-GATORS ARE MORE TESTED: No question navigating Utah, Kentucky and South Florida is much more difficult than Ball State, Pitt and Akron. Whether they like what they've learned or not, the Gators have a much better idea who they are than the Vols to this point.

6-SPECIAL TEAMS GAFFES: The Vols have had a punt blocked and fumbled a punt at big points of their only competitive game of the season. That type stuff will get you beat versus the front-running Gators.

7-SERIES RIDICULOUS HISTORY: The numbers are ugly and etched in every Vol fan’s mind. The Gators have won 16 of the last 17 and the last four by double-digits. Here’s another ugly one; the Vols have beaten Alabama 10 times and tied them once since the league broke into divisions in 1992. In that same period, they have only six versus the Gators.

COMFORTS:

1-GATORS PEDESTRIAN PASSING GAME: To paraphrase the great Lou Brown -the crusty Indians Manager in Major League: "You may run like Hayes but you pass like ass”. I don’t know if the Gators have no receivers or a QB that can’t get it to them if they did. Florida 121st in America in Passing Offense at 141 ypg with ZERO TD passes. If I’m the Vols I put 8 in the box and dare them to throw it.

2-THIS IS NOT YOUR TYPICAL SHUT DOWN TAKE THE BALL AWAY GATOR DEFENSE: In the years when Florida was offensively-challenged they could count on a salty defense bailing them out. Not this time. Florida is 77th in Overall Defense giving up 373.3 ypg and 76th in Scoring surrendering 26.7 ppg. They are also only 51st in takeaways with 5.

3-I’M CONFIDENT HENDON HOOKER WON’T COMMIT COSTLY TURNOVERS: Hooker has thrown 184 passes since his last interception. In his time at UT, he has 388 pass attempts with 38 TDs and only 3 Interceptions.

4-DON’T BELIEVE FLORIDA IS BUILT TO SCORE WITH TENNESSEE: The Vols have been uncharacteristically slow starting in comparison to last season’s 1st Quarter blitzkrieg but they are still Top-5 in America scoring 52 ppg. This is obviously bloated due to their MAC opponents but I’ll be surprised if they don’t score 30 or more versus the Gators and I don’t think Florida can match that on a good day for their offense.

5-VEGAS ‘REALLY’ BELIEVES: Since 1992 the Vols have only been favored seven times (courtesy of The Great Matt Dixon); 93 (-1); 96 (-3); 02 (-5); 04 (-3); 2012 (-3); 14 (-2-) and 16 (-4-). When you boil it down that means only in 2002 and 2016 were the Vols ever truly a favorite minus the three points generally awarded for home field advantage. This season Vegas has installed the Vols as a 10- point favorite and a Power Ranking I like suggests that playing at home they should actually be laying 15.

6-RICHARDSON/NAPIER AND GATORS FIRST ROAD CONTEST OF 2022 COULDN’T COME IN A MORE RAUCOUS ENVIRONMENT: I’m an old man yet wouldn’t be stunned if Saturday’s environment in veritable Neyland Stadium is the most intimidating I’ve ever experienced. I guarantee it will be for everyone associated with the Gators.

7-HEUPEL’S DEMEANOR SEEMS MADE FOR THIS EVENT: The Vols may be tight as a banjo string on Saturday but it won’t be because their Head Coach exuded the negative vibe. He’s much more even-keeled than anyone who has preceded him in this series.

8-TO QUOTE THE LATE/GREAT JOHN WARD “IT’S TIME”: The Vols have the best team; they’re one year ahead of Billy Napier and the Gators on the stability, approach understanding scale and are playing at home. It’s time for the Vols long nightmare to come to an end.

Go Vols

B-NO

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